Game Preview: Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt (2024)

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In the transfer portal era, predicting anything in week one with any kind of confidence is pretty difficult. And that's certainly true this week.

This Vanderbilt team has:

• Head coach Clark Lea calling defensive plays for the first time since his time as DC at Notre Dame in 2020
• Two new offensive architects, Jerry Kill and Tim Beck, who spent last year at New Mexico State
• A potential two-quarterback system with dual-threat transfers from New Mexico State and Utah
• And 50 total new faces throughout the roster

Add in that this is an August road trip to a steamy southern city for the first game of the year with an 11:00 a.m. local kick and high temperatures, humidity, and maybe some thunderstorms expected, and there's a decent amount of uncertainty. Things could get weird.

All that aside, Virginia Tech should win the game handily.

These programs have moved in different directions since the beginning of last year.

• Virginia Tech improved from three wins in 2022 to seven wins in 2023, and the Hokies return the 4th most production in the country from last season, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.
• Vanderbilt is coming off a poor 2-10 season where their only wins were against Hawaii and Alabama A&M.

Last time we saw this Vanderbilt team, they were losing their final two games of the season to the tune of 47-6 against South Carolina and 48-24 against Tennessee.

And while they return the No. 23 most production in the country on the defensive side of the ball, the offense is largely new and lost its best playmakers to the transfer portal when Will Sheppard and London Humphreys headed to Colorado and Georgia, respectively.

That's going to be one of the primary challenges a program like Vanderbilt faces in the portal era. When you do evaluate, recruit, and develop really good players, how do you retain them against the other top programs, especially if they've already proven capable of playing at a high level in the SEC?

And when you do lose those top players, is it realistic to replace them with a similarly talented player? Probably not, and that's what we see with a lot of Vanderbilt's transfers. They played a decent bit at previous stops, but there's no clear cut upgrades that definitely fill holes on this roster.

Contrast that to Virginia Tech, which enjoyed a stay-the-course off-season of consistency and stability, and it's easy to see why the Hokies are 14-point favorites in this one.

The goal here for Virginia Tech is to get out of Nashville with a win by any means necessary. If it's a struggle, chalk it up to week one nerves and retain confidence that you can sort it during the two favorable matchups ahead.

But again, this should not be a struggle.

When the Hokies Have the Ball

Last we saw Virginia Tech's offense, they hammered Tulane in a torrential downpour to the tune of 362 rushing yards and 41 points just a few weeks after putting 55 points on arch-rival Virginia in the regular season finale.

Then, the Hokies brought back QB Kyron Drones, their top two tailbacks, their top four receivers, and all their offensive linemen.

So yes, I'd expect Tech's offense to look pretty similar to the offense that flourished late last season. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? And it certainly wasn't broken at the end of last year.

In their final eight games of the year, Virginia Tech's 1.85 expected points (a measure of explosiveness) was No. 10 in FBS and their 51.51% offensive success rate (a measure of efficiency) was No. 23.

So, what are you looking for this week? A few things.

1. Improvement from the offensive line: Tech is deeper and a year older on the offensive line. That usually translates to better play, but that's not a guarantee. One game won't answer the question completely, but it'll be a first indication.

1. The duo of Drones and Tuten: Tech leaned heavily on the run game last year, and the two-headed threat of Drones and Tuten was a big part of that. Expect more of the same this year, but perhaps with a heavier lean toward the talented Tuten to keep Drones healthy throughout the year.

1. Downfield passing game: Tech's wide receiver group is among the best in the conference, and Drones worked hard over the off-season to improve throwing into tighter coverage down the field. Again, one game won't answer the question completely, but we should see this passing attack have success down the field against this defense.

Vandy is hoping for a boost from Lea's decision to take over the play calling. However, this is still a defense that struggled mightily last year.

Only the Boston College team that VT put 48 points on was worse defensively, according to the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI).

The best players on this unit are safety C.J. Taylor and linebacker Langston Patterson. They ranked No. 2 and No. 6, respectively, among SEC linebackers last year according to PFF.

Lea has shifted Taylor to safety for this year, and considers him the most explosive player on the unit, so he's certainly one to watch. Don't be surprised to see him lurking in the box in this game.

Other than those two, there don't appear to be additional proven impact players on this defense, which means the Hokies should be able to game plan around those two stalwarts.

Patterson and Taylor are good players in the middle of the defense, but it'll be hard for them to make an impact if the defensive line struggles against Tech's offensive line or if they are simply chasing Tech's receivers to make a tackle down the field.

A few new defensive players to keep an eye on besides Patterson and Taylor:

• DE Khordae Syndor, who logged 157 snaps at Purdue last season.
• DT Zaylin Wood, who started the last three seasons at Rick Stockstill's Middle Tennessee State.
• STAR Randon Fontenette, who played 81 defensive snaps as a true freshman at TCU.
• CB Kolbey Taylor, who played 536 snaps at Wyoming.

These additions were made to shore up what was a questionable returning depth chart. Before those additions, Vandy's top defensive returners included:

• DE Aeneas DiCosmo, who is now No. 3 on the depth chart and was rated the No. 37 DE by PFF a year ago.
• DT Bradley Mann, who is also No. 3 on the DT depth chart now and was rated the No. 45 DT in the SEC a year ago.
• CB Tyson Russell, who is now a co-starter with fellow CB Martel Hight. Those two allowed the second-highest and fourth-highest reception percentage, respectively, among SEC CBs last year — Russell at 79.1% (34 catches on 43 targets) and Hight at 74.5% (32 catches on 42 targets)..

So yes, Vanderbilt made a serious attempt to upgrade their roster this off-season, but it's still not certain they added enough talent to improve the unit.

Do they have the coverage ability at corner to limit Tech's highly regarded wide receivers? Do they have a defensive line that can limit the two-headed rushing attack of Tuten and Drones?

It doesn't feel that way, despite the impact Lea hopes he can have as a defensive playcaller.

Across the board, with a veteran and stable group, Tech enters this game confident about putting up more than enough points to win.

When the Commodores Have the Ball

Just as preparing for a Lea-coordinated defense throws a wrench of uncertainty into this game, the same could be said for the offense.

Beck and Kill are in charge of the offense, and with the turnover in personnel, it will be a much different offense than the one Vanderbilt ran last year, which featured their talented wide receivers Sheppard and Humphrey.

But it's also not guaranteed to look identical to how New Mexico State played last year under Beck and Kill.

NMSU was able to run the ball extremely well (more on that in a bit) last year, and I'm not sure they can reasonably expect to do the same against Vandy's SEC schedule.

So what will be different that Virginia Tech's coaching staff needs to identify early? That's one key underlying story for this one. How well does Virginia Tech adapt to what they see during the first few possessions?

The one constant Tech probably can get a decent read on is QB Diego Pavia, who won 10 games at New Mexico State last year, including a big win at Auburn.

Vanderbilt did not announce a starter and listed Utah transfer Nate Johnson with an OR designation. While Johnson could factor in as a running quarterback option, this feels like it's likely to be The Diego Pavia Show in Nashville throughout the season.

He's a fun quarterback to watch. Pretty gun-slingery (I'm declaring that a word) as a passer and confident in his ability to pick up yards on the ground.

Expect Vanderbilt to let Pavia be Pavia, which means letting him cook on the ground. Consider these stats from PFF:

• Last season, Pavia's 166 designed rushing attempts (roughly 11 per game) were the fifth-most among FBS quarterbacks. For comparison, Drones had 145.
• Meanwhile, his 57 scrambles (undesigned rushing attempts) were second-most among FBS quarterbacks, just ahead of LSU quarterback and Hesiman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.

Pavia's ability outside the pocket will probably be a big part of Vanderbilt's offense this season. Given the personnel elsewhere, it's one of their top ways to put pressure on the defense.

Either Pavia gives them an extra number in the running game or he extends plays outside the pocket to force the defense to contain and cover.

With that in mind, Pavia will put a lot of pressure on Tech's linebackers this week, led by new MLB Sam Brumfield.

As a passer, he's got some ability, too.

His 5.7% big-time throw percentage, which PFF defines as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window", was tied with Florida State's Jordan Travis last year.

The question is if there is enough talent around Pavia.

RB Sedrick Alexander is a player they like, but he led the team with just 376 rushing yards last season.

At wide receiver, without Sheppard and Humphreys, Quincy Skinner (20 catches on 31 targets) and Junior Sherrill (21 catches on 30 targets) are the top returner producers, but much of the talk this August from the Vanderbilt media was about the lack of a downfield passing attack with the receivers.

The Hokies figure to love their matchup there with top cornerbacks Dorian Strong and Mansoor.

The receiver to keep an eye on might just be 6 foot 7 inch tight end Cole Spence, who delivered a superb August camp and could be the top target for Pavia.

The one thing you'll hear early in this game is Vanderbilt's unique decision on the offensive line to not designate linemen on the left and right side, but they'll instead flip from strong side to quick side depending on the hash marks.

It's quirky and different, and if you're Vanderbilt, you need to take advantage of any kind of small edge you can get, and maybe this is worth a shot.

But it's also not a particularly good indicator if you don't have linemen good enough to just play the way almost every other FBS team plays. With Tech bringing back DE Antwaun Powell-Ryland and adding DT Aeneas Peebles to a deep defensive line, that's another key area where the Hokies have an edge.

Analytic Brief: Virginia Tech Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense

In previous years, I'd list some analytic numbers and hope you figure it out. I'll try to be more helpful this year and give you the most important or glaring data discrepancies on each side of the ball.

There's not much to go on here with zero games played but here's one of the main metrics we'll look at all year.

• Available yards measures the percentage of yards gained that were available. If you start at your own 40-yard line and score a touchdown, you gained 100% of the 60 available yards. That's very good.
• If you start at the 20-yard line, gain 70 yards down to the 10, and miss the field goal, you've generated more total offense but only 87.5% of the available yards and didn't get any points. Not as good.

By the end of last year, Tech's offensive available yards percentage was 47.5% (No. 61). Middle-of-the-road for the season. Vandy's defense allowed offenses to gain 56.3% of available yards, which ranked No. 123 in the country.

One other key area the Hokies hope to improve this year is the conversion of scoring opportunities. There are a couple of ways to look at this.

The traditional way is red zone scoring. How often do you score a touchdown in the red zone? How often do you settle for a field goal?

• Tech had a scoring percentage (touchdown or field goal) of 88.46% last season on red zone trips (46 of 52). That was pretty good — No. 35 in FBS.

However, too many of those were field goals. As Bill Connelly says, field goals are losers.

• Tech scored a touchdown on just 51.92% of red zone trips last season, which ranked No. 105 in FBS. If Tech hopes to contend for the ACC Championship, they'll need to punch in more touchdowns than field goals this year.

Finishing drives is another Connelly metric that extends the red zone. It looks at points per trip inside the 40, which is where you start expecting to put some points on the board.

Tech didn't generate enough opportunities last season.

• Their 65 scoring opportunities were No. 80 in FBS.
• They generated 4.15 points per opportunity, again largely thanks to the proficient field goal-kicking of John Love, which ranked No. 48 in FBS.

If you're looking for specific areas to watch this season, generating more scoring opportunities and converting them into seven instead of three is a good one.

Analytic Brief: Vanderbilt Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense

Things aren't much better for Vandy's offense. FEI rated them the No. 92 offense in FBS last year while SP+ had them at No. 80. They picked up just 38.6% of available yards (No. 108).

Two things to watch are passing explosiveness and running game success rate.

With wide receivers like Sheppard and Humphreys last season and the scoreboard realities they faced, Vanderbilt had to throw the ball often, even though they weren't any good at it.

• 56.34% of their plays last season were passing plays (No. 22 most in FBS) despite a success rate on those plays of 36.73% (No. 109 in FBS).
• However, when they did have success on a passing play, they were pretty explosive. Vandy's 1.70 EPA on passing plays was No. 30 in FBS.

As we discussed, those receivers are now gone. Under Beck and Kill, this will no doubt be a more run-oriented offense — NMSU was No. 100 in FBS in passing plays rate last season — but how much they can realistically lean on the traditional rushing attack is a big question.

And that leads us to the running game success rate. Can they replicate their success from NMSU?

• New Mexico State's 51.65% success rate on rushing plays last season was No. 7 best in FBS.
• Vanderbilt's 37.14% was No. 125.

In an ideal world, Beck and Kill run the ball as much as they did in 2023 at NMSU. But do they have the personnel to do so? Could even a marginal improvement out of the triple digits nationally make a big difference?

5 Best Vanderbilt Players (Per PFF)

Another update on the format here. I used to make my own judgment here, but I'll let PFF grades do the talking this season. For this game, let's just go with players who played considerable snaps for Vanderbilt last season.

Offense

1. WR Junior Sherrill (71.1)
2. RB Sedrick Alexander (71.1)
3. WR Quincy Skinner Jr. (62.7)
4. WR Richie Hoskins (60.2)
5. OG Kevo Wesley (58.0)

Defense

1. S C.J. Taylor (80.8)
2. LB Langston Patterson (75.4)
3. S De'Rickey Wright (73.8)
4. LB Bryce Cowan (72.7)
5. LB Nick Rinaldi (67.3)

4 Key Vanderbilt Reserves (Per PFF)

Again, I'll identify these starting next week via a marriage of depth chart position and PFF snap counts and grades. For now, some players that might factor in on Saturday.

1. QB Nate Johnson: Backup quarterback transfer who may see some time as a running threat.
2. RB Chase Gillespie: One of three backup running backs who may see time. He had the most rushing attempts of the three last season with 32.
3. DT Yilanan Ouatarra: Backup DT originally from Germany who logged 238 snaps last season but lost the starting job this August to starting DT De'Marion Thomas (334 pounds).
4. S Dontae Carter: Vanderbilt's top recruit from their recent recruiting class who earned a backup spot as a true freshman.

3 Special Teamers to Know

These will likely stay the same all season to answer three questions. How's the kicker? How's the punter? And do they have any dangerous returners?

• Punter Jesse Mirco is an Australian who punted for three seasons at Ohio State. He allowed 11 returns on 50 punts last year, a 22.0% return percentage that was No. 14 best in the Big Ten.

• Kicker Brock Taylor replaces Jacob Borcila, who made seven field goals on just 10 attempts last year. That was among the fewest attempts in the P5 last season.

• CB Martel Hight is listed as the top starter at kick returner and punt returner. He did not have a kick return attempt last year, but he did have 1 punt return for 22 yards last season and

2 Important Situational Statistics

We already covered offensive red zone conversion for Virginia Tech earlier, but that and third downs will be highlighted here this season.

Third Downs

• Vanderbilt Offense: 33.12% (No. 116 in FBS)
• Virginia Tech Defense: 34.73% (No. 32 in FBS)

• Virginia Tech Offense: 34.86% (No. 108 in FBS)
• Vanderbilt Defense: 46.95% (No. 127 in FBS)

Red Zone Conversion

• Vanderbilt Offense Score Percentage (TD or FG): 76.47% (No. 110 in FBS)

• Vanderbilt Offense Touchdown Percentage: 64.71% (No. 39 in FBS)
• Virginia Tech Defense Score Percentage (TD or FG): 88.57% (No. 109 in FBS)
• Virginia Tech Defense Touchdown Percentage: 65.71% (No. 103 in FBS)

1 Final Thought

I've made it pretty clear that I like Virginia Tech quite a bit in this matchup.

They have more firepower offensively, more top-end talent defensively, and the added benefit of not turning over half the roster and both sides of the coaching staff.

I'm not sure how much improvement Vanderbilt will show in the win-loss column this year, but it's likely the Hokies are getting them at the right time of the season before they've had a chance to get comfortable in the new offense, a chance for Lea to figure out their strengths as the DC, and with that funky offensive line thing they are going to try.

The one area that, of course, will change any game is turnovers, especially on the road early in the season.

If for some reason the Hokies struggle there — perhaps with a new center in Braelin Moore or a couple forced throws down the field from Drones — then this thing could tighten, but it still seems like a significant talent deficit for the Commodores to overcome.